What should the Oilers do with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins?
RNH is a player that has been integral to Edmonton
When people talk about the Oilers, the first players that come to mind are always Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, and rightfully so. Connor McDavid is probably the best player in the league and consistently scores 100 points every year, while Leon Draisaitl is the reigning Hart, Art Ross and Ted Lindsay winner. It’s no surprise these two guys are the Oilers players who are talked about the most.
But while Edmonton is very reliant on those two, it’s misinforming to say that they’re the only good players on the team. There’s many underappreciated players on the Oilers, and the best player on the team besides those two is Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.
RNH is currently a 27 year old pending UFA this offseason, and with lots of cap uncertainty, there’s a chance that he won’t re-sign. This article will go into multiple scenarios on what could happen to him, and if it’s easy to find a replacement for him.
How good is Nugent-Hopkins?
Nugent-Hopkins has been a very productive player. Over the past three years, he ranks 57th in 5v5 points and 34th in all strength points. He’s also 46th in 5v5 goals and 35th in all strength goals. So it’s safe to say his box score stats are pretty good, and that he’s been very productive for a top 6 player.
To add on, his underlying analytics have been great as well.
As seen by the “offence” and “defence” percentiles on the top right of Nugent-Hopkins’ player card (via EvolvingHockey, a great analytics website), it’s very evident that Nugent-Hopkins was a very reliable two-way player in 19-20. His defensive ability was a bit overrated in prior years by Oilers fans, as from 18-19 and before, his defensive stats were subpar. But he’s shown that he’s a responsible player in his own end in both 19-20 and in 20-21 so far.
In the past two years (via EvolvingHockey), Nugent-Hopkins’ isolated impact at suppressing even strength QA (xGA/FA), or in simpler terms, denying high quality chances, has been 1st on the team and 26th in the league for forwards. It’s safe to say that his defensive game has grown a lot. Combined with the fact that he’s also been 68th in the league in terms of all strengths shooting talent, it’s pretty obvious that he’s an excellent and pretty valuable top 6 player.
He’s been able to find lots of chemistry with both McDavid and especially Draisaitl. You could argue that with/without stats are a bit misleading in this case, since the wingers McDavid and Draisaitl play with when they’re away from RNH are not as good as him, but nonetheless, it still shows that he helps maximize them.
As a summary, Nugent-Hopkins has probably been Edmonton’s best two-way top 6 player over the past 2 years, is a valuable asset on special teams (although he hasn’t been the greatest penalty killer this year), and can play both center and wing. This is a very tough player to replace, and I’ll be going through 3 scenarios on what Edmonton could do with him.
Scenario 1: Edmonton trades him at the deadline
I don’t think it’s too likely, but if both camps don’t come close to an agreement, Ken Holland may consider doing this, rather than to let him walk and lose him for nothing.
The problem with this scenario is that:
A) I think the Oilers will be buyers this trade deadline. I don’t think it’s a guaranteed chance we make the playoffs, as the Oilers are on a PDO heater without McDavid on the ice (in other words, they’re slightly overachieving without McDavid and their goal differential could slightly go down), but I still predict they make the playoffs.
B) What will the Oilers acquire for him at the deadline? What they would most likely obtain are picks and prospects. That just removes the team’s 3rd best player, leaves a big hole in the lineup, and almost guarantees that he won’t return in free agency.
In my opinion, this isn’t a good idea at all and shouldn’t even be a possibility, unless Ken Holland is over 100% sure that Nugent-Hopkins won’t be staying, and I don’t think that’s the case at all.
Scenario 2: Sign him after the expansion Draft if Klefbom has to be protected
The Seattle expansion draft is a weird topic, because there’s still a lot of uncertainty about one thing; whether Edmonton needs to protect Oscar Klefbom or not. The unfortunate thing is there are rumours that Klefbom may even retire after surgery. Healthy Oscar Klefbom in 16-17 was a true #1 defenceman, but I still think there’s a solid chance he comes back, and I’d still want to protect him.
Per Cap Friendly, defenceman who are eligible for the expansion draft are:
under contract in 2021-22
have played in 40 or more games in the last season or
have played 70 or more in the past two seasons
Additionally: “Players with potential career-ending injuries who have missed the previous 60+ consecutive games due to an injury, do not meet the criteria set forth by the league in respect to the minimum exposure requirements for players, and in certain cases these players may even be deemed as exempt from the Expansion Draft selection process.”
Now, there are only 56 games this season (so we don’t know if the games will be prorated), and we don’t know if Klefbom’s injury is career ending yet, so there's a lot of uncertainty.
So if the Oilers don’t need to protect Klefbom, it makes everything simpler. Protect 3 defencemen (Nurse, Bear and Jones) and 7 forwards (McDavid, Draisaitl, RNH, Yamamoto, Puljujarvi, Kahun, and you can make arguments for multiple forwards for the 7th spot). If they do need to protect him, it makes the situation complicated.
What the Oilers could do is protect 4 defencemen (Klefbom, Nurse, Bear, and Jones, I don’t want to lose Jones for free) and 4 forwards (McDavid, Draisaitl, Yamamoto, and Puljujarvi), and then sign RNH after. Seattle most likely gets a window to talk to free agents (just like Vegas did), and if a free agent agrees to a contract, then the NHL considers that player as Seattle’s pick for that player’s respective team (meaning, if RNH and Seattle come to an agreement during that window, then RNH is considered Seattle’s pick. They don’t pick another player from the Oilers). Even if RNH and Seattle don’t come to an agreement, they still can claim his UFA rights and can negotiate a contract until free agency day (whenever that is), and if they don’t come to equal terms, he becomes a UFA.
It shouldn’t be a huge problem because it’s been reported that RNH wants to stay in Edmonton. It’s still a good option, but it is a bit risky.
Scenario 3: Either simply re-sign him or let him walk
Probably the most simple and straightforward situation; re-sign our third best player, or let him go.
Here are some of RNH’s current contract comparables (I’m using goals and points a lot because that’s what contracts are usually based off of). RNH has had similar goal numbers to most of them, and much better production numbers, although one could argue they’re slightly inflated due to playing time with McDavid and Draisaitl.
It looks like the Oilers do not want to pay him over $7M, and I’m guessing Nuge’s camp wants around that, or at least $6.5M+. If I’m Ken Holland, I would be 100% OK with that.
It’s hard to believe that this team is ready to overpay players like Kassian and Chiasson, but not the team’s third best player by around a million or less. It isn’t like he’s old and declining either; he’s 27, and is playing the best hockey of his career. With a flat cap and a lot of uncertainty, it makes issues more complicated, so I think he’ll get less than some of those guys on that list (he’s definitely not getting Duchene money), but something like the Schenn/Krieder contract would be perfect.
I’m also willing to give him around $7M+, because Nugent-Hopkins has been playing like a $7M player over the past 2 years. You can definitely argue that he won’t be that good in 7 or 8 years, which is why something like $7-7.5M for 4 years wouldn’t be a terrible bet. If he wants anymore than that, and is asking for Duchene money (highly unlikely though), I would be ready to let him walk.
If the Oilers do let him walk, can the Oilers find better options in free agency?
Are there good/better options to replace RNH?
Here’s a chart comparing all available UFA forwards in free agency (GAR is Goals Above Replacement, it’s an analytics model made by EvolvingHockey, and it’s based on the on-ice impact a player provides offensively and defensively). The projected cap hit is a tool made by EvolvingHockey which uses stats like points, plus-minus, age, etc, and tries to guess what the realistic cap hit a GM would give a player. It isn’t perfect, as I disagree with Nugent-Hopkins, Schwartz and Danault’s projections (although each of them are solid producers), but it’s still been fairly accurate at projections in the past.
Nugent-Hopkins is both the 2nd best producer on that list and offers the 2nd highest WAR/82, only behind Kyle Palmieri.
If he leaves, I think a great replacement is Landeskog. Both of them are very similar players, but I doubt Landeskog leaves Colorado. Ovechkin is not a realistic option at all, and he could also get $10M+ (note that Ovechkin’s GAR is brought down by his defence). Palmieri is a good player, but combined with the fact that he’s been OK in 20-21, and that RNH has been the better player in 19-20 as well, I don’t think he’s an upgrade.
I like Danault and Tatar, and they’re excellent play-drivers of shot attempts and scoring chances, but they haven’t been very good in 20-21 so far, and RNH still has a higher WAR/82 than both of them in prior years.
Many people would love Hall on this team, but in my opinion, I still think RNH is a better player.
RNH has been better in each of these stats except expected goals play-driving, and it’s mostly because Hall was much better at that facet in 18-19. RNH has been better at that in both 19-20 and 20-21. Nuge’s better defensive and special teams play, and his ability to play both center and wing make him the better option in my opinion.
Obviously he isn’t this elite, irreplaceable talent. Right now, Nugent-Hopkins is just a very good and pretty versatile top 6 forward who’s worth $7M in my opinion. But it’s going to be hard to find a realistic forward replacement for him in UFA. Trying to trade for one means we might have to give up valuable assets, so I think the best option is to simply keep him.
Conclusion
Like I said before, I think the perfect long term deal is around ~$6.5M, and I wouldn’t mind something like a $7.5M x 4 deal either.
I definitely think Nugent-Hopkins wants to stay in Edmonton, and I personally hope he does. He’s the team’s 3rd best player right now. Letting him walk in free agency for nothing would be a huge loss.
With over $24M in cap space in the offseason, Ken Holland has a lot of priorities, like signing Yamamoto, improving goaltending, etc, but one of the biggest ones has to be to try re-sign Ryan Nugent-Hopkins to the right price.
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