The Case for Tomas Tatar to the Oilers
Looking into Tatar's regular season and playoff performance and how good of a fit he could be for the Edmonton Oilers
After getting swept in the first round by the Winnipeg Jets, and coming to a point where Devin Shore and Zack Kassian were on the 2nd line in Game 4 when it went to 3OT, it was pretty clear that the Edmonton Oilers still have a ways to go from being a contender.
There are still multiple holes in this roster and many things for Ken Holland to do. The goaltending needs to be fixed, the bottom 6 needs major improvements, multiple UFAs and RFAs need to be signed, etc.
But one of the bigger objectives for Holland should be to find a left wing for Connor McDavid and Jesse Puljujarvi to play with. This season, multiple players played in that role, such as Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Dominik Kahun, etc.
When RNH played on that line, they were a bit unlucky and had trouble finishing, but even then, RNH and McDavid never played well on a line together in the past. In a limited sample, Kahun managed to put up excellent numbers on that line, but he is definitely not getting the 1LW job next season. He may not return to the Oilers at all.
Draisaitl did great in that role, but the Oilers should not be deploying him on the top line with McDavid, as this turns Edmonton into a one-line team. So, the Oilers need to find a good top 6 winger.
There are multiple top 6 options in free agency that Edmonton could go after, such as Gabriel Landeskog (if he leaves Colorado), Brandon Saad, Blake Coleman, etc.
One of the most intriguing options for this role is Montreal’s Tomas Tatar.
Some don’t want Tatar on the Oilers, as they will see his box-score stats in the playoffs and label him as a player that doesn’t show up in the playoffs and is only useful during the regular season.
This article will go through Tatar’s play in both the regular season and the playoffs, and why the Oilers should still be after him as a winger to play alongside Connor McDavid.
Tatar has been one of the most productive forwards at 5v5 in the league the past 2 seasons
In the past 3 years, not a lot of players have been more productive than Tatar at 5v5. Only 20 players have a higher 5v5 Points/60, as Tatar is ahead of players such as Bergeron, Ehlers, Tavares, Rantanen, Barzal, Aho, etc.
Over this timeframe, Tatar’s most common linemates at 5v5 have been Philip Danault and Brendan Gallagher, who rank 46th and 23rd on this list, and both of them see a jump in their production rates when Tatar is on the ice.
Furthermore, Tatar is more productive at even strength than any UFA forward available, and this includes players such as Alex Ovechkin. Considering how Edmonton had some of the worst production rates for wingers in the league, it makes sense for Tatar to be a good choice for them.
Points obviously only tell a very small part of the story though, so how good has Tatar been in other facets of the game?
Tomas Tatar is an analytical darling
Tatar is loved by a large portion of the analytics community, as he’s one of the best play-drivers of possession and scoring chances in the league and is a huge reason for why Montreal is such a strong possession team. Per EvolvingHockey, his isolated impact on scoring chances for and against ranks 4th in the league in the past 3 years. His isolated impact on possession also ranks 4th over that timespan, and these factors cause a lot of the analytics community to call him one of the most underrated and underappreciated players in the league.
Even in terms of his impact on plain and simple goals for and against, he’s top 50 over that timeframe. Like stated before, Tatar has most commonly played with Danault and Gallagher, and that trio has been one of the best lines in the league in terms of goals and expected goals.
All three of them are strong play-drivers, and while you could argue that Tatar’s numbers are higher because of Danault and Gallagher, this statement is false due to his isolated impact (which adjusts for teammates and competition) being so high. Even using simple WOWY (With or Without You) shows that Danault and Gallagher get better with Tatar on the ice.
Both Danault and Gallagher see their on-ice goal and expected goal share rise by a pretty solid margin when Tatar is on the ice. Tatar also manages to be a positive in both categories without Gallagher and without both of them. He’s a positive in expected goals without just Danault. He’s a negative in goal share, but it is worth noting that Tatar got some unlucky goaltending during that time.
Tatar is also a very good transition player, as he excels at entering and especially exiting the zone with the puck. He also tends to shoot a lot and is good at finishing those shots as well (as seen by his production rates).
All of this points to him being one of the best available options in free agency.
But what about the playoffs, some may ask?
There are multiple things to note about Tatar’s playoff performance
Many people have pointed out that Tatar becomes a “ghost” in the playoffs, as they point out his low production rates and assume that he’s been a healthy scratch for all of Montreal’s current playoff run.
Part of this is true, Tatar struggled in his first two playoff appearances (although they were many years ago). Tatar’s offence seeing a dip in the playoffs is also true.
At the same time, Tatar’s defensive numbers go up by a large margin, to the point that he’s still a net positive. In the past 4 years, both Vegas and Montreal have seen their goal and expected goal share go up when Tatar touches the ice in the playoffs.
Tatar’s coaches have put him in a tough, defensive role. Per EvolvingHockey, he was 3rd on the team in QOC% (Quality of Competition, basically the % of a player’s time on ice that they play against top lines) in each of the past two years, while also having more shift starts in the defensive zone than the offensive zone.
He was put into a tough role, presumingly as a shutdown forward alongside Danault (he played mostly without him in the 2020 playoffs, but was still utilized as a shutdown player), and he put up good defensive numbers. He was then injured (not scratched), as he was placed on Montreal’s injury list for a while, but when he came back, he wasn’t put into the lineup and only took line rushes. I assume it was because since Montreal made it to the semi-finals, they may have thought they didn’t need him in the lineup to win. This is just an assumption, though, because there isn’t another logical explanation for how a player goes from facing the toughest matchups to being a healthy scratch.
To go back to his decrease in offence, this gives a very similar feeling to what occurred with Jordan Eberle.
A player has a low on-ice shooting%, they don’t produce much as a result, and then they’re labeled as a “playoff choker.” That’s what happened to Eberle, who went on to have 33 points in 45 playoff games with the Islanders after having a 1.22% on-ice shooting% in the 2017 playoffs with the Oilers.
Tatar is in a similar boat, as he was actually not bad in generating scoring chances for, but his 5v5 on-ice shooting% is just 5.07%. Product over process is not always a wise strategy to use.
This is my issue with people making some narratives about how “Player A can’t produce in the playoffs, they’re not tough enough, they can’t handle the pressure and intensity.”
It can be true at times, but most of it is simply based on small sample sizes, in which good and bad luck are very common. To add on, sometimes, players are utilized in different roles in the playoffs. Tatar was used as a shutdown forward and produced good defensive results as Marner and Matthews struggled to produce when he was on the ice against him (a lot of that is also Danault’s excellent defensive play, but like shown before, both Tatar and Danault make each other better).
Due to these reasons, the playoffs should not be used as a reason to not go after him.
Conclusion
Tatar can produce, he’s an excellent possession player, he has solid defensive results, and he can be put into a tough role and still thrive. He checks a lot of boxes for Edmonton, a team that could use better 5v5 producers outside of its two stars.
I don’t buy the playoff narratives, and in a way, Tatar not playing a lot in the playoff run for Montreal is a blessing in disguise. It means his market value is lower, making him easier and cheaper to acquire. If he was in Edmonton, he would most likely not be in a shutdown role, and his on-ice shooting% has a very low chance of sustaining.
He was also drafted by Holland and is a former Red-Wing, so there’s a connection there, as Holland has tried to acquire ex-Detroit players in the past (Athanasiou, Green, there were rumors he was interested in Glendening, etc).
Age is a concern (he’s 30), but if one of the places Tatar is interested in going to is Edmonton, he should be one of the top players for Edmonton to go after for a short-term deal.
Find me on Twitter (@NHL_Sid)