At the time, the 2020 Trade Deadline for the Edmonton Oilers seemed great. The Oilers acquired defenceman Mike Green and forward Andreas Athanasiou from the Red Wings, and forward Tyler Ennis from the Ottawa Senators. Unfortunately, it didn’t age well.
Green played 2 games, got injured, and then eventually retired. Athanasiou looked promising at first, scoring a goal and an assist on McDavid’s wing in his Oilers debut, but in the remaining 8 regular-season games and 4 playoff games, he went pointless and struggled defensively. Eventually, the qualifying offer for this pending RFA was $3M, which was too expensive for the team. As a result, they let him walk, meaning the two 2nd round picks that were traded for him were basically wasted assets.
Only Tyler Ennis remains on the team, and the cost for him was only a 2021 4th round pick. He’s still a solid bottom 6 forward. But as a whole, the 2020 Trade Deadline is not looked upon in a very positive manner for Edmonton.
This article will be going into the good and bad for the Oilers at the 2021 Trade Deadline.
The positives
Dmitry Kulikov
Dmitry Kulikov, a left defenceman acquired from New Jersey, is a solid addition to the d-core.
The chart above is via EvolvingHockey, and it measures the on-ice impact a player provides. The chart on the left is his even-strength impact, and the one on the right is his power-play impact. For the even-strength chart, the first 3 bars are offence, while the last 2 bars are defence. Red = bad, blue = good. All these stats are adjusted for the quality of teammates and competition that a player gets.
Kulikov has been New Jersey’s best defenceman thus far. Despite having 60% of his zone starts occur in the defensive zone, Kulikov managed to put up good underlying numbers offensively and defensively. He’s had a bit of bad luck in terms of goal differential, as the Devils haven’t been the strongest team, but he’s been a prominent possession player and one of their bright spots in a bad season for them. Per Natural Stat Trick, the New Jersey Devils out-chance the opposition 251-222 with him on the ice.
Per PuckIQ, he had positive possession numbers against elite competition, or in other words, top lines and top pairings. So Kulikov. can get tough deployment and can still put up strong two-way numbers. Furthermore:
Kulikov is a strong player at completing zone exits and would be one of our best defencemen at denying zone entries.
He was primarily played with Damon Severson and PK Subban, two puck-moving defencemen. That’s why he should be paired with a guy like Tyson Barrie, and Kulikov could also help Barrie’s defensive game. Pair Ethan Bear with Darnell Nurse, and Adam Larsson with Caleb Jones.
The Oilers gave up a conditional 4th round pick in 2022 for him. The condition is that the pick will be a 3rd if the Oilers win a playoff series.
The trade was pretty decent for Edmonton. Now, if the Oilers win a playoff round, I hope we don’t have the excuse of “we didn’t have a 3rd round pick to trade” at next year’s deadline, and since Kulikov is a UFA, he probably won’t return next year.
Looking at it in those ways, it’s not an amazing trade, but it’s still a fairly low-risk, high reward deal if Kulikov can translate his success for New Jersey to Edmonton.
Kulikov has been a strong, two-way veteran defenceman who can play well in a top 4 role. The player is still good.
They didn’t land Luke Glendening or Mike Hoffman
I was never a big fan of Luke Glendening or Mike Hoffman at all. Their underlying numbers were concerning.
To add on, their 5v5 production was also subpar. Hoffman would be 12th on the Oilers in 5v5 Points/60, Glendening would be 13th.
Hoffman scores goals on the power play and doesn’t do much else. He isn’t a good play-maker and is pretty much a defensive liability. He’s too one-dimensional in my opinion and isn’t a good fit.
As for Glendening, he’s 2nd in the league in faceoff%, which some pointed out as a reason to acquire him. Winning faceoffs is a great thing, but in the past 3 years, his 5v5 possession numbers are bottom 5 in the league. What’s the point of winning so many faceoffs if you’re consistently stuck in your own zone all the time?
There were rumors the Oilers made late pushes for them, but it’s a good thing they didn’t acquire them in the end.
The negatives
No top 6 winger
Here’s what Holland said when asked if the Oilers were in on a forward or not.
“We weren't really close. I don't know that they were impact forwards, but they were NHL forwards. Money was tight, assets were tight. I felt the priority was to get a little bit deeper on the back-end.”
Additionally, when he was asked on Taylor Hall:
“I'm not sure if I can answer those questions. I’m not really going to get into it, I’m not sure if I can talk about other teams' players. So, the answer is no.”
This is a bit disappointing.
The top 6 has been good, but not great this season. Kahun - Draisaitl - Yamamoto is scoring goals, but they’re getting out-shot and out-chanced. RNH - McDavid - Puljujarvi is generating chances, but that line is having trouble finishing. Putting McDavid and Draisaitl on the same line practically makes the Oilers a one-line team.
Even before the season started, I wanted the Oilers to place Kahun with McDavid and Puljujarvi, and then put together the “DRY” line (RNH - Draisaitl - Yamamoto), the line that did so well in the second half of 2020-21. It’s baffling how this top 6 still hasn’t been tried out yet, but either way, a top 6 forward could have been very beneficial.
Hall only fetched a 2nd and Anders Bjork, a 3rd liner. Considering the fact that Hall only has two goals, his trade value wasn’t through the roof.
It’s hard to criticize a GM for a move he didn’t make, especially from the perspective of fans who don’t know much behind closed doors. And to be fair, since Hall has an NMC, he may have wanted to go to Boston instead of Edmonton. If that’s the case, you can’t blame Edmonton at all.
But at the same time, it’s hard to look at this roster and think they don’t need a top 6 forward. Even if they didn’t get Hall, players like Rakell and Iafallo (before he signed his extension) were still available.
No bottom 6 forward depth
Not getting a top 6 forward wasn’t the end of the world, as our current top 6 is still very good and definitely manageable. But not getting a forward in general, not even a depth forward, may hurt.
The Oilers have been a very top-heavy team in the past 4 years. In the one season the bottom 6 had a positive GF%, they were one win away from the conference finals.
Let’s compare this to the bottom 6 of the last 5 teams that won a cup.
Now, let’s do the top 5 teams in the league in 2021.
Most of these teams either had a positive goal differential or were very close to a positive, when without their top 3 scorers. Obviously, a team’s bottom 6 shouldn’t have breathtaking numbers, but they should at least be close to 50%. The Oilers, however, haven’t cracked over 39% once over the past 4 years.
It’s very safe to say the Oilers could have used a forward or two. Kyle Turris, who was signed to play as the 3rd line center in free agency, has mightily struggled. He’s not a top 12 forward on this team.
Over half of our bottom 6 has cleared waivers (Ennis, Turris, Khaira, Shore, Chiasson, and Neal). This is the 6th year of Connor McDavid’s tenure in Edmonton and he still can’t get a bottom 6 behind him with a GF% above even 40%?
I liked Derek Ryan, and he could have been a solid two-way 3C. The cost for him was probably not very high. Calle Jarnkrok was also a pretty decent option.
But staying pat and not getting any forward support means that this team will still be too reliant on the top guys heading into the playoffs.
Potentially less playing time for Caleb Jones
I hope the acquisition of Kulikov was a replacement for Kris Russell and not Caleb Jones. But I have a feeling it’s not.
Dave Tippett seems to see Kris Russell as the 2nd best LD on the team, as Russell is consistently playing around 16 minutes a night and getting a lot of penalty-killing time, while Jones is only playing 8-11 minutes per night.
This basically confirms my theory and hints at Kulikov coming in for Jones, further displaying how this organization views him.
Fun Fact: Out of all of our defencemen, Caleb Jones has the lowest goals allowed/60 since February. If he’s such a defensive liability like some claim, why has he not been on-ice for a lot of goals against as of late?
I like Jones a lot. He has some solid underlying stats, and while others may disagree, I enjoy watching him play. He’s a strong puck-mover and defends very aggressively. I feel like excels at keeping things to the outside, and this is backed up by his stats.
Does he make errors and mistakes from time to time? Yes. But he’s still young, and he isn’t going to be a perfect defender yet. In the end, for the 2nd straight season in a row, the Oilers are a better team with Caleb Jones on the ice. He provides a positive impact on the team.
Remember, he’s only played 82 NHL games in his career so far, so even if some don’t think he’s a top 4 defenceman right now, why are they already giving up on him? What happened to the “you don’t know what a defenceman is until they played 400+ games” argument which was applied to Nurse? Why is it not applied to guys like Ethan Bear or Caleb Jones?
I like Kulikov as a player, but the trade won’t look as appealing if it means Jones will continually sit in the press box.
Conclusion
The plain and simple fact is that this team isn’t good enough right now, considering their weak forward depth and how 39-year-old Mike Smith could regress at any time.
When you have two top 5 players on the team and they're 24 and 25, the goal should be to be more than just a fringe playoff team. The Oilers just got out-shot in back-to-back games against the worst team in the division, the Ottawa Senators. They’ve been slowly regressing over the past few games, as they’ve been out-chanced and are riding some unsustainable play from Mike Smith.
The point I’m trying to make isn’t to sell the farm, trade Broberg, Bouchard, and Holloway, and acquire lots of rentals. But the 1st round pick, especially in a fairly weak 2021 draft, shouldn’t be an untouchable asset. The player we’ll draft with that pick will probably only be ready for a big role by the time McDavid and Draisaitl are nearing their 30s. Why not trade that pick for a guy like Rakell, who isn’t a rental and has another year on his contract?
The argument about how they would have cap issues has flaws. Teams in similar cap situations as Edmonton, such as Toronto, Boston, and Tampa Bay, managed to make things work, got creative, and thought outside the box. Teams like Toronto even used a 3rd team to retain salary, while Holland said in his interview that they never thought about using a 3rd team. It isn’t an impossible feat to free up cap space.
The logic here doesn’t make sense either. If Edmonton isn’t going all in, what’s the point of continually scratching young players like Caleb Jones and Evan Bouchard and giving aging vets like Kris Russell so much ice time?
If the team doesn’t think they’re good enough for a run this year, why not call up guys like Tyler Benson and Ryan McLeod from Bakersfield and give them a few NHL games? It probably won’t hurt either, since our bottom 6 has already struggled so much. There’s no point in constantly playing veterans in place of younger players, especially as the Oilers are pretty much a lock for the playoffs. What’s there to lose if the goal isn’t a cup?
Additionally, if the team thinks they aren’t good enough, why not sell and trade some pending UFAs who may not re-sign (e.g. Larsson and especially Barrie, who could walk in free agency, as he could command a lot of money) for the draft picks that Edmonton puts so much value into, and open room for our younger players?
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying this deadline isn’t the end of the world. I’m also not saying that I’d be a better GM than Ken Holland in any way at all.
But it is disappointing that we’re in McDavid and Draisaitl’s prime years and we’re still a very average team. I feel like they could have made more improvements. Edmonton probably doesn’t win a cup even if they did, as their roster on paper is still probably not enough, but considering how the North Division isn’t very strong, who knows what could happen.
If they played their best lineup while also getting some forward improvements, at the very least, Edmonton could be a very tough opponent for a team like Toronto and make some noise in the playoffs. In my opinion, unless McDavid and Draisaitl score at some crazy 2 PPG pace or Mike Smith plays like he’s in 2011, the current roster won’t be able to compete with Toronto in a playoff series. Depth can be crucial in the playoffs, and Toronto has depth, Edmonton doesn’t. They would probably also have trouble with Montreal, and that’s shown in Edmonton’s regular-season record against the Canadiens.
Doing almost nothing though doesn’t send a very strong message to McDavid, Draisaitl, and Nurse, guys who are all young and having career years. Connor McDavid won’t be on this team forever, and a team with him in his prime should be contending every year. Is the goal simply just to make the playoffs and be happy with a first or second-round exit with two top 5 players?
The 2021 Trade Deadline wasn’t a disaster at all for the Edmonton Oilers, but it certainly wasn’t close to successful or satisfactory either in my opinion.
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