Edmonton vs Winnipeg: Round 1 Preview
Breaking down each team's strengths and weaknesses ahead of this playoff series
With a 5-0 Winnipeg win over Vancouver last Wednesday, the playoff matchups for the Scotia North Division were set. Toronto would play Montreal, Edmonton would play Winnipeg.
Both Edmonton and Winnipeg are similar in the way that both are strong rush teams. Additionally, both of them have dynamic offensive players, but both also top-pairing defenceman that struggle in their own end. This article will be looking through each team’s forward lines, defence pairs, goaltending, and special teams, and identify what each team may need to do to have success.
Forwards
Edmonton’s Forward Lines:
Edmonton is a quite top-heavy team, leaning mostly on Draisaitl and especially McDavid, who is having a historic season. But while they do lean heavily on their two superstars, they aren’t their only valuable forwards. Jesse Puljujarvi has been excellent this year, as his underlying defensive numbers are borderline Selke-worthy, and he has more 5v5 goals than players like Nathan MacKinnon, Artemi Panarin, etc.
Nugent-Hopkins has had a strange season. He’s been one of Edmonton’s best defensive forwards and has been a very good scoring chance play-driver, but he’s had terrible puck luck, as he’s currently producing at a 3rd line rate at 5v5. Still, he’s starting to score more as of late and is expected to play on a line with Leon Draisaitl, so don’t expect his misfortune to continue in the playoffs.
The current top 6 is probably the ideal combination, as Kahun has found chemistry with McDavid and Puljujarvi, while the line of RNH - Draisaitl - Yamamoto (commonly referred to as the “DRY” line) turned the Oilers’ season around last year. They could turn out to be huge in this series.
Ryan McLeod has probably been Edmonton’s best bottom 6 forward, but the rest of the bottom 6 is the concern. Neal and Chiasson have had forgettable seasons, although for some reason, they have excellent stats whenever they play together (with Neal and Chiasson on the ice, the Oilers control 56% of the goals and 55% of the scoring chances). Neal - McLeod - Chiasson may turn out to be a very solid line.
The 4th line is an extremely low event trio. Nothing happens when they’re on the ice. They have above-average defensive stats, but they have a lot of scoring problems. Shore doesn’t provide any offence whatsoever, Khaira is very streaky offensively, and Archibald is also pretty low-event. Tyler Ennis should be a regular in the lineup, as he’s top 5 on the Oilers in 5v5 Points/60, but Dave Tippett really likes players who can play on special teams. Ennis doesn’t play on either one, even though he’s a superior player at 5v5 than most players in the bottom 6 like Devin Shore.
Overall, the Oilers forward group is good, the depth is lacking, but the top 6 (especially Connor McDavid) makes up for it.
Winnipeg’s Forward Lines:
Winnipeg isn’t top-heavy, unlike Edmonton. All of their lines have a positive impact other than their top line.
Kyle Connor has always struggled defensively, he has a great shot, but his defensive numbers are near the bottom 10 in the league. Blake Wheeler is probably having the worst year of his career, as in terms of RAPM play-driving, he ranks 640th out of 661 players with at least 200 minutes (RAPM is a tool that adjusts each player’s offensive and defensive stats for teammates, competition, zone starts, etc, to see how good they are at generating and preventing scoring chances). Compared to his linemates, Mark Schiefele has not been that bad defensively this year, and he’s an overall net positive, but regardless, that top line has a lot of defensive struggles.
Pierre-Luc Dubois has not been that impressive at even-strength so far in Winnipeg after getting traded from Columbus, but you can’t say the same for his two linemates, especially Nikolaj Ehlers. In my opinion, Ehlers is by far Winnipeg’s best skater. He’s 13th in 5v5 points since the start of 19-20 and has solid defensive metrics as well. He’s currently out with a shoulder injury and he’s a big question mark for the playoffs, but if he does play, he could make a big impact.
Winnipeg’s 3rd line may be their most balanced. Copp is a strong possession player, but although he isn’t the greatest defensively, both Perreault and Lowry make up for it with their strong defensive metrics.
Similar to Edmonton, Winnipeg’s 4th line is an extremely low event trio, but unlike Shore - Khaira - Archibald, they’re a net positive. Mason Appleton is having a very good year for a depth forward, and while both Thompson and (especially) Lewis have been offensive black holes, they have been good in their own end.
Winnipeg’s overall bottom 6 is much more well-rounded than Edmonton’s. They still aren’t spectacular offensively (to be fair though, most 3rd and 4th lines in the league aren’t offensive juggernauts), but they’re very solid defensively and end up creating more than they give up. Still, Edmonton’s top 6 is still superior, mostly due to McDavid and Draisaitl and due to how Winnipeg’s top line has been giving up a lot more than they’ve been creating.
Top 6: Edmonton
Bottom 6: Winnipeg
Defenceman
Edmonton’s Defence Pairings:
Edmonton’s blueline is interesting. Nurse - Barrie can move the puck and provide offence, but they may be the worst defensive pairing in the league. In a playoff series, a much calmer Nurse - Bear pairing would be much more ideal (Nurse - Bear would be +0.22 in offence and -0.04 in defence, compared to Nurse - Barrie which is +0.15 in offence and -0.40 in defence). It’s also worth noting that Ethan Bear excels when playing against tough competition, as he is 2nd in the league in DFF% (Dangerous shot share) against elite competition (in other words, the oppositions’ top lines and defence pairings).
Kulikov - Larsson is an excellent defensive pairing, and they’ve had great results together so far. The problem is that neither Kulikov nor Larsson can move the puck efficiently or make good outlet passes. This may be a problem in the playoffs. Kulikov is at his best when paired with a strong puck-mover (he had great numbers with Severson and Subban in New Jersey). This can similarly be applied to Adam Larsson, as he also had strong stats with Caleb Jones. Jones’ offensive numbers haven’t been eye-popping this year, although a large part of it is due to how much time he’s spent with the bottom 6, and how he’s had minimal time with the top 6. Last year, his numbers were much more respectable, and he does have good puck-moving stats, so the upside/potential is there.
The current defence pairs are still definitely not terrible, but I feel that they have more potential.
Winnipeg’s Defence Pairings:
Analytics have never loved Josh Morrissey, but he’s been the opposite of good at even strength this year. He ranks 7th last in the league in terms of RAPM play-driving, and the Jets have a higher goal and expected goal differential with him on the bench. Poolman has also not had a very satisfying year in this regard. Overall, that pairing has gotten shelled in its own end, and Connor McDavid could feast on that pairing.
The 2nd pairing is weird. Individually, Forbort has not had a good year on either end of the ice, while Pionk has been very solid at both ends, and has been outstanding on the power play. When they play together, they’re a positive in possession and goals, so the 2nd pair isn’t bad, it’s really just the top pair that’s the concern.
Jordie Been has been above average offensively, below average defensively, but overall, he hasn’t been quite bad for a 3rd pairing defenceman. Dylan Demelo is pretty much an analytical darling, as for the 2nd straight season in a row, he’s been an exceptional two-way defenceman. Similar to Edmonton with Ethan Bear, Demelo should be playing in the top 4, maybe even with Morrissey to help cover his defensive issues, but he isn’t.
Overall, Winnipeg’s blueline isn’t a strength of theirs. Pionk and Demelo are great two-way defencemen, but other than Benn, who’s been OK, the Jets defence is not pretty. In this series, the edge goes to the Oilers.
Defence: Edmonton
Goaltending and Special Teams
Edmonton’s goaltending/special teams:
If you told me before the season that Mike Smith would rank top 10 in most goalie statistics this year, I would have thought you were insane, but somehow, 39-year-old Mike Smith has been playing like a true starting goalie this year. Mikko Koskinen on the other hand has had his struggles. Smith went down early in the season, and Koskinen started almost every single game, and he was practically run into the ground. The awful defence at the beginning of the season (the Oilers were 1st in the league in high danger chances allowed at one point) didn’t help either. At one point, Koskinen had a 0.929 SV% ever since Smith came back, but he’s been terrible in his most recent 3 games. One of them included a game in which he allowed 4 goals on 4 shots (a feat that had not been accomplished since 1989).
There will be a back-to-back in this series, so it will be interesting to see if Dave Tippett will start Smith in both games, give Koskinen another chance, or even start their third-string, Alex Stalock.
As for the special teams, as usual, Edmonton’s power play has been deadly, as they’re ranked #1 in the league for the 2nd year in a row. Their penalty kill was terrible at the beginning of the season, but in the past few weeks, they’ve been much better. Edmonton’s power play will be one of their biggest keys to their success.
Winnipeg’s goaltending/special teams:
Reigning Vezina-winner Connor Hellebuyck, as usual, has been one of the best goalies in the league this year. In terms of GSAx (goals saved above expected), he ranks 3rd in the league and is the best goalie in this series. Laurent Brossoit has also been a solid backup this season. He’s been about average at even strength but has been splendid on the penalty kill. One thing to note about Hellebuyck is that against Edmonton this season, he has a 0.877 SV%. If that continues, Winnipeg is not going to win, so this is an important thing to keep in mind.
Winnipeg’s power play is 10th in the league this year, and it has been solid, but obviously not at the level that Edmonton’s power play has been. They do have a better penalty kill this season though, but still, I would give the special teams edge to the Oilers due to how good their power play is and since their penalty kill has been solid as of recent.
As for goaltending, I would give the edge to Winnipeg. Even if Connor Hellebuyck has had his struggles against the Oilers, he’s still the best goalie in this series. Mike Smith has exceeded expectations this year by a large margin, but we still need to remember that he’s a 39-year-old goalie who had two rough seasons before 2021. There is a chance that he could revert back to his pre-2021 form or play as he did in Game 1 of the play-ins last year against Chicago (allowed 5 GA and got pulled). You can never know with goaltending.
Goaltending: Winnipeg
Special Teams: Edmonton
Conclusion
How Edmonton can win
Edmonton’s success relies primarily on how Mike Smith plays, and the extent to how good Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl can be. If Mike Smith’s playoff performance will be similar to how he has played all season, there shouldn’t be a lot of problems.
McDavid currently has 35 points in his last 13 games (!), and if Connor Hellebuyck continues his struggles against the Oilers, this could end up being a very short series. Edmonton just needs to play against Winnipeg the same way they’ve played against them all season long.
How Winnipeg can win
Winnipeg requires numerous factors to win this series. Josh Morrissey and Blake Wheeler’s play have to improve because they’ll be playing against a red-hot Connor McDavid all series long. Shutting down McDavid and Draisaitl has to be one of their biggest priorities. Nikolaj Ehlers also has to be healthy, as like I stated before, I believe that he is Winnipeg’s most valuable skater.
Edmonton’s top pair of Nurse - Barrie could prove to be a weakness for the Oilers. They’ve struggled defensively all season long, and defence can be crucial in the playoffs. There’s definitely a possibility that Mark Schiefele and Nikolaj Ehlers could expose that pairing’s issues in their own end. And obviously, Edmonton’s goaltending could also collape, and could end up being an advantage for Winnipeg.
My prediction
Edmonton is the better offensive team, and they also allow chances against at a lower rate, but Winnipeg’s GA is lower due to goaltending.
My guess is that the Oilers will win in 6 games. Who knows how Smith and Hellebuyck play, but mostly due to Edmonton having McDavid and Draisaitl, their strong special teams, and their current record against Winnipeg in 2021 (7-2 in favour of Edmonton), I think this will end up being a very fast-paced series in which the Oilers will end up emerging victorious.
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