Breaking Down Potential Trade Targets for the Oilers
Looking into players at all positions who could help Edmonton
At first glance, the Edmonton Oilers are looking pretty good so far this season. They had 11 wins in 13 games before last Saturday, and they were in 2nd place in the North Division. But after getting outscored 7-0 in the last two games to a Leafs team without Auston Matthews and their best two goalies in the 2nd game, while also considering that regression was very likely due to the fact that the Oilers were on a PDO (proxy for luck) heater without McDavid, it’s clear this team still has many holes.
Edmonton could use assistance at all positions; wing, center, defence and goaltending. This article will be breaking down some potential and (somewhat) realistic trade targets for the Oilers and how good of a fit they will be.
Rickard Rakell
Rakell will probably give a lot of Oilers fans some pretty painful memories after the 2017 playoff series against Anaheim. He was the player who scored the eventual OT goal in the pivotal Game 5 of that series, the game with the infamous goalie interference incident with Kesler and Talbot.
But make no mistake, Rakell is an excellent player, who has the ability to play both center and wing. Rakell is 2nd on the Ducks in 5v5 primary points over the last 3 seasons, and 3rd in goals. Rakell also has multiple 30 goal seasons in his back pocket. Playing him on a line with Connor McDavid could make him even more deadly. He’s also not very old (only 27) and isn’t a UFA until after 21-22.
Rakell also has pretty solid underlying numbers (these player cards are via EvolvingHockey, a great analytics website), as he ranks 3rd on the Ducks in GAR (Goals Above Replacement, EvolvingHockey’s analytics model based on on-ice impact offensively and defensively) over the past 3 years. His defence is brought down by a pretty bad defensive season in 18-19. He wasn’t terrible in other seasons, but it’s definitely an area he could improve on. Overall, he’s still a good even strength player who’s an excellent offensive play driver of high quality chances. Rakell would be a solid fit here.
Viktor Arvidsson
Viktor Arvidsson is a more extreme version of Rickard Rakell. He’s better offensively, worse defensively, and he’s been struggling this year so far. To be fair, he wasn’t that great in 19-20 either after having an excellent 18-19 season.
He also has injury concerns, but Arvidsson is still definitely a player I would take a look at. Arvidsson has an excellent shot; he ranks 17th in even strength goals over the past 3 seasons. He also has a pretty solid contract, with 4 years left at $4.25 million, so while Arvidsson does have some flaws, it might be a good idea to trade for him while his value is not too high and hope he can bounce back this season alongside the NHL’s best player.
Filip Forsberg
Filip Forsberg, the 2nd Nashville Predator on this list, could be a pipe dream, but he was on The Athletic's Trade Deadline Board and there’s been rumours about him. Forsberg is an excellent two way player, with good stats all around. He can drive offence, he can penalty kill, and he’s been a consistent 50-60 point player. With his ability to play both left wing and right wing, he could be the perfect player to pair up with McDavid and Puljujarvi on the top line.
But Forsberg has a lot of trade value and will cost a lot. Unlike Arvidsson, he isn’t struggling this year by any means; he’s 4th on the Predators in GAR and he has 19 points in 21 games. Compared to the other players on this list, we would have to give up a lot to get him, including a lot of future prospects, but it could be worth it, as Forsberg is one of the league’s better two way wingers. Alongside a line of RNH - Draisaitl - Yamamoto, a line of Forsberg - McDavid - Puljujarvi could terrorize the North Division.
Brandon Sutter
It’s clear that Kyle Turris has not worked out in Edmonton as a 3C, so they might try to trade for Vancouver’s Brandon Sutter as a replacement. It was suggested that Edmonton might seem interested in him, and it seems like they want a right shot center with good faceoff stats, and Sutter is just that (50.8 faceoff%). But I don’t think he’s the best option available.
His contract does only have this year left, but he has a higher cap hit than Arvidsson ($4.375 million), and Sutter isn’t worth $4M. I’m also not sure if he’s an upgrade on Gaetan Haas, who has had better underlying defensive numbers than him.
To be fair, he’s had a solid year for a bottom 6 player so far, ranking 7th on Vancouver in GAR and with 6 goals in 25 games, but considering his contract, age, and the fact that he may not be an upgrade on Haas makes him a somewhat underwhelming option.
Derek Ryan
If the Oilers want a right handed center who is good at faceoffs, Calgary’s Derek Ryan is a good option. Ryan has had respectable production numbers for a bottom 6 player, with 29 points in 68 games in 19-20, and 38 points in 81 games in 18-19. He’s an OK penalty killer, but he has excellent underlying defensive numbers at even strength. Ryan just cleared waivers, and I would have wanted the Oilers to claim him, but they don’t have the cap to do so. Ryan’s contract AAV is $3.125 million, which is a good contract for him in my opinion.
Ryan has struggled so far this year in 10 games, but he’s a much better option than Sutter and I would definitely take the bet on him bouncing back over continuing with Kyle Turris at that spot.
Mattias Ekholm
The 3rd player from Nashville here on this list, but Mattias Ekholm would be an excellent fit in Edmonton, in almost every possible way.
Ekholm would be a great replacement for Oscar Klefbom if he can’t come back, and he provides value in a variety of ways; he’s an excellent 5v5 offensive playdriver, he can defend well, and he’s a very solid special teams player. In the past 3 years, he ranks 19th in the league for defenceman in xGAR, even ahead of his teammate Roman Josi. He also has decent production numbers for a defenceman, as he’s been a 30-40 point player in the past couple of years.
Ekholm is also an excellent puck mover and great at denying entries into the zone. There’s really not much to not like about Ekholm, as he’s great in almost every facet. His name has been popping up in rumours recently, and I’d be ready to send a LD like William Lagesson or even Caleb Jones back as part of a package.
Running a top 4 core of something like Nurse - Bear and Ekholm - Bouchard would make this team much more dangerous and better overall at 5v5. Not to mention, Ekholm can also provide value off of the ice. He’s an experienced veteran who can mentor our young players, and he’s also friends with Kyle Turris, his former teammate. He checks all the boxes for a top 4 LD the Oilers could benefit from.
Darcy Kuemper/Antti Raanta
The Coyotes aren’t a very good team, and don’t have a whole load of talent, but one of their bright spots is their excellent goaltending tandem. Both Darcy Kuemper and Antti Raanta would be good goaltending fits for Edmonton. Kuemper ranks near the best of the best in the past few seasons, as he finished 4th in the league in EvolvingHockey’s GSAx, while Raanta also adds up to be a pretty reliable netminder as well. A private NHL goalie model, CSA (Clear Sight Analysis), placed Raanta as the 3rd best goalie last season in terms of SV% above expected, behind only Jacob Markstrom and Tuukka Rask. He was even ahead of Connor Hellebuyck. Arizona is still a fairly good defensive team, but both Kuemper and Raanta save more goals than they’re expected to.
Kuemper has a cap hit of $4.5M left for two years, while Raanta has a cap hit of $4.25M and is a UFA at the end of the year. Considering the fact that Kuemper is younger, better, and has more term, I think Arizona would rather keep him over Raanta, who I feel would be a fairly cheap and solid option for Edmonton. But Kuemper could be the Roloson for Edmonton this year, and if I were Ken Holland, I would still explore a trade to acquire him.
Chris Driedger
Florida has put themselves in a really tough spot with Sergei Bobrovksy’s 7 year, $10M AAV contract, which is one of the worst in the league. Considering the problem that he needs to be protected in the expansion draft (his contract has an NMC), Florida probably does not want to lose their other goalie, Chris Driedger for free, who’s been better than Bobrovsky in the 23 GP he’s played over the past 2 seasons.
Now obviously we have to be wary of the sample size, but you can’t ask Driedger to play much better in the games he’s played so far. He’s also fairly young for a goalie, as he’s only 26. Florida probably doesn’t want to lose him for free in expansion, and considering the fact that Bobrovsky is basically unmovable, I think Florida will end up moving him. While he has been doing well, his trade value shouldn’t be through the roof, so in my opinion, the Oilers should definitely take a look at him.
Conclusion
These players aren’t the only options available, as there are other good players available as well, such as Mikael Granlund as a top 6 winger, Petr Mrazek as a goalie option and Nick Bjugstad/Calle Jarnkrok as a 3rd line center option. There is also Taylor Hall, but he’s a weird player. He’s been good at generating scoring chances and expected goals this year, but he’s been a terrible finisher just like the rest of Buffalo. Hall has just 1 goal this year. Combined with the fact that he also has a $8M cap hit, it would be somewhat risky to get him. If Buffalo retains a lot of money, it’s not a terrible option, as he could easily bounce back alongside McDavid and Draisaitl. But in my opinion, I would go for the safe bet and get a guy like Rakell.
I would still want to see how Dominik Kahun plays next to Connor McDavid. I think he hasn’t been amazing so far due to the fact that he and Yamamoto are somewhat similar players and don’t work well on a line together. Both of them play a similar style of small, forechecking, complimentary wingers, and I don’t think those two have a lot of chemistry. I would love to see him perform on a line with McDavid and Puljujarvi, and if he does well there, the need for a top 6 LW may not be as pressing, and they could focus on improving other areas.
The Oilers still need to move out cap if they want to get any of these players, so maybe moving a guy like Barrie while his value is high (we already have Bear, Larsson and Bouchard as RD) might be a smart move. Moving out Kassian’s contract (when he comes back) could also be a possibility.
The Oilers will probably make the playoffs, and they have a pretty solid team, but there are still holes in this roster. There’s many available players who can help improve this team, and maybe even help them contend with Toronto for the top spot in the North Division.
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