Analyzing The Value Of Kailer Yamamoto

Could Yamamoto be offer-sheeted and for what price point?

Training camp for the 21-22 NHL season is just about to begin, and multiple Oilers players have already begun skating in Edmonton. One of those players is not yet Kailer Yamamoto.

The pending RFA, who turns 23 in a few weeks, remains unsigned as of now. Details about their negotiations and Yamamoto’s asking price remain unclear.

Before the 20-21 season started, the majority of Oilers fans and reporters around the team projected Yamamoto to start in the top 6, while many debated between Zack Kassian or Jesse Puljujarvi as the other top RW. But now, Puljujarvi has clearly outshone Yamamoto as the best right-winger on the team. He’s coming off a season in which he was close to doubling Yamamoto’s EV Goals/60 and while posting borderline-Selke level shot suppression results.

To add on, Bob Stauffer has suggested numerous times that Kassian could spend significant time in the top 6 this year. This could mean two things; either Yamamoto may frequently play in the bottom 6, or there might even be the slim chance of an offer-sheet or trade.

So, that begs the question; How good is Kailer Yamamoto? Is he worth over $3M? Is he a bonafide top 6 winger?

Two years of development and a breakthrough season in 19-20

After being drafted 22nd overall in 2017, Yamamoto made Edmonton’s roster out of training camp/preseason and started his year with the Oilers in 2017-18. He played a brief 9 game stint, in which he started on the 3rd line and even spent a bit of time alongside Connor McDavid. He put up some very strong shot metrics (the Oilers controlled 56% of the shot attempts and 62% of the expected goals with Yamamoto on the ice at 5v5).

But, he had finishing/production struggles (although to be fair, the vast majority of 18-year old NHL players won’t be great finishers right off the bat). In November, the Oilers sent him down to develop in the WHL with the Spokane Chiefs for the rest of the year.

Yamamoto started the year again with the Oilers in the NHL in 18-19, but this time, his on-ice metrics weren’t as exceptional (the Oilers controlled 49% of the expected goals with him on the ice). Additionally, he still had subpar production (a mere two points in seventeen games). He flipped back and forth between the NHL and AHL and ultimately ended up playing 17 games with Edmonton and 27 games in the AHL with the Bakersfield Condors.

Things were vastly different in 19-20, as Yamamoto began the year in Bakersfield, putting up 16 points in 23 AHL games. Edmonton recalled him in late December, a month in which the Oilers had a 4-8-1 record and were mightily struggling. In his season debut on New Year’s Eve, Yamamoto started on a line with Joakim Nygard and Leon Draisaitl, as the Oilers had McDavid, Draisaitl and RNH each center their own line that particular game. The following game, the 2nd line was RNH - Draisaitl - Yamamoto, a line that heavily impacted Edmonton’s season.

Most commonly referred to as the “DRY” line by numerous Edmonton fans, with the trio of Yamamoto, RNH and Draisaitl on the ice, the Oilers controlled a whopping 77% of the on-ice goals and 56% of the expected goals at 5v5. The team went 15-7-4 ever since the line was put together, despite Connor McDavid being injured and out of the lineup for a couple of games.

As for Yamamoto himself, he put up 26 points in 27 games and had excellent underlying numbers. He was one of the best scoring chance play-drivers on the team that year and was a significant reason for the bounce-back in Edmonton’s record since December. His tenacious forecheck and offensive skill brought a lot to the top 6.

To make this simpler to read, blue = good, red = bad. The first three bars are offensive stats, last 2 bars are defensive stats, and the chart on the right consists of power-play stats. These stats are isolated for quality of teammates and competition.

Still, it’s important to keep in mind that Yamamoto went on a PDO heater (in simpler terms, a proxy for puck luck). Posting 26 points in 27 games, having a 25 SH% and posting the 4th highest 5v5 Points/60 in the entire league was definitely not sustainable over a larger sample size.

But this doesn’t dismiss the fact that Yamamoto solidified himself as an NHL player and as one of the best top 6 options available on the team.

Did Yamamoto struggle in 20-21?

Yamamoto started the year with Draisaitl, but free-agent signing Dominik Kahun was on their left wing, as Nugent-Hopkins spent a large amount of time alongside McDavid. It was pretty clear that Kahun just didn’t fit that line like RNH did, as the line of Kahun - Draisaitl - Yamamoto controlled just 43% of the on-ice expected goals and 47% of the shot attempts. The line was consistently leaking chances against.

From an individual standpoint, Yamamoto’s finishing regressed by a substantial amount. In 19-20, he had 11 goals on 7.93 expected goals, However, in 20-21, he had just 8 goals on 11.26 expected goals, despite playing more games in 20-21 than 19-20.

He finished the year with 21 points in 52 games. He didn’t get much power-play time, but it’s not like he was remarkable at even-strength, as he posted a 1.27 even-strength Points/60, compared to a 3.07 EV P/60 in 19-20.

It was obvious that there was no way he would match up to his play the prior year in a larger sample. Yamamoto was bound to regress to some extent, but his scoring was a lot worse than many people thought it would be. He had a mere four goals in his final 41 games despite having Leon Draisaitl as his most common linemate and even spending a brief amount of time as the 3rd wheel on a line with Draisaitl and McDavid. Production-wise and in terms of his play-driving, he had a very average year, offensively and defensively.

Some may say that Yamamoto’s lack of offensive production, especially near the end of the season, was merely bad luck. But at the same time, his on-ice shooting% was 8.43%, which was still above the league-average on-ice shooting% in 20-21 (8.17%). Not to mention, Yamamoto got some defensive luck/good goaltending this year, as he was on-ice for 33 expected goals against in 758 even-strength minutes, but just 24 actual goals against.

If anything, Yamamoto was slightly lucky this year. So, what may be a possible reason for a year in which he didn’t quite fulfill expectations?

Per Corey Sznajder (who manually tracks microstats, which are essentially individual advanced stats), Yamamoto was 3rd on the Oilers in Recovered Dump-Ins/60 in 19-20, and 1st among top 6 forwards. However, he was 9th in 20-21. Additionally, he was just 12th in Forecheck Shots/60.

When it comes to playing style, what made Yamamoto so effective in 19-20 was how he excelled at forechecking. He constantly played a tenacious, aggressive game by pressuring defenders, engaging in puck battles and successfully retrieving the puck for Draisaitl and RNH. But, it didn’t seem like his game was as effective this year.

I think it’s fair to deduce that Yamamoto had somewhat of a sophomore slump in 2021, and I fully expect him to perform better next year.

Is there a possibility of an offer sheet?

Although it just happened to Jesperi Kotkaniemi about a week ago, offer sheets are a pretty rare occurrence. The last successful offer-sheet before Kotkaniemi was in 2007 by the Oilers when they successfully offer-sheeted Dustin Penner for a 5 year, $21.5 million deal.

Consequently, the odds of Yamamoto getting offer-sheeted are reasonably low, but who knows what could happen.

Yamamoto’s one-year QO (qualifying offer) is around $0.894M, but I definitely think he’s looking for more term and money. EvolvingHockey’s contract projections project Yamamoto at a 3 year deal for $3.5M, and I’m fine with that deal, considering that he’s just 22 and has already shown flashes of being a strong offensive play-driver and 5v5 producer. But I think that would be an overpay based on market value and that may not work with Edmonton’s current cap structure. Bob Stauffer suggested on Oilers Now that he could see Yamamoto accept a 2-year deal at $2M.

Edmonton is already using $3.2M out of Klefbom’s $4.1M LTIR (Long Term Injured Reserve) space. Waiving 2-3 players like Perlini or Laggesson could clear up an additional $1.5M, but will that be sufficient to sign him? I could see another team attempt to offer sheet him for $3-3.5M+ and see him accept. Many teams in this league could use more middle 6 winger depth.

This is just one of a large list of reasons as to why the Duncan Keith trade was such a dreadful decision, as not retaining any money at all on his $5.5M contract hampers Edmonton’s ability to sign Yamamoto.

Again, it is a pretty slim chance, but if Yamamoto does get offer-sheeted for a price the Oilers cannot match, it’s a self-inflicted wound by Ken Holland.

Conclusion

Going back to how Bob Stauffer said Zack Kassian could spend time with McDavid and/or Draisaitl, it should be a no-brainer to play Yamamoto ahead of him.

Many people have pointed out that Yamamoto’s production didn’t meet their standards, but they ignore how Kassian has just 18 shots all year and didn’t even average a full point per 60 minutes. Furthermore, he was a drag on possession and scoring chances as well, unlike Yamamoto.

Sure, Kassian put up solid box-score numbers in 19-20, but that was the result of an unsustainable SH% heater playing alongside McDavid and Draisaitl. He cooled off by a substantial amount as the season went on, as Kassian has just 4 goals since the beginning of 2020.

Back to Yamamoto; I’m not entirely sure if he is an indisputable top 6 player, as I’d like to see him post better results in a larger sample size. I think it’s reasonable to say he’s a reliable middle 6 winger with potential, but this shouldn’t reduce the fact that he’s still a valuable asset.

He is by no means a defensive liability, and he’s shown in both of his previous years that he still has offensive skill and can drive scoring chances. One of his primary areas of improvement is his inconsistent finishing talent, but at 22, he has time to improve on that front, especially if he continues to (and he should) spend a large portion of his time with McDavid or Draisaitl.

Hopefully, he can come to terms with Edmonton on a contract pretty soon. One of the few bright spots of this offseason is how the additions of Hyman, Foegele, and Ryan have massively improved Edmonton’s forward depth, and losing Yamamoto would definitely be a step back in that regard.

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