A Deep Dive Into Xavier Bourgault
Looking through the video and numbers on Edmonton's 2021 First Round Draft Pick
The Oilers dealt their 20th pick in the 2021 NHL draft for the 22nd and 90th picks to the Minnesota Wild on Friday night. With the 22nd pick, Edmonton selected Xavier Bourgault from the QMJHL, a forward from L’Islet, Quebec.
Some loved the pick, stating how Bourgault bolstered Edmonton’s forward prospect pool and was a strong finisher.
On the other hand, although the trade seemed like smart asset management in most people's eyes, many thought that it was an error to pass on goaltender Jesper Wallstedt. Wallstedt put up a 0.908 SV% in the SHL, a pretty tough league, and he has legitimate potential to turn into a top-tier starter for many years. Not to mention, he was ranked among the top 10 in the vast majority of rankings.
At the same time, it wasn’t as if Bourgault was a reach by any sense, as he ranged from #15 to #34 in most consensus rankings.
So, how good exactly is Xavier Bourgault? What are his strengths and weaknesses, how much of an impact could he make for Edmonton, and was he worth the 22nd pick?
How well does Bourgault rank statistically?
Bourgault plays on the Shawinigan Cataractes of the QMJHL. He spent the majority of his time at wing in Shawinigan, but he can play both center and right-wing. He’s one of the oldest players in this draft, as he turns 19 on October 22.
In 2020-21, he put up 20 goals and 20 assists in 29 QMJHL games, with his season being shortened due to injuries and the pandemic. The year prior, he had 33 goals and 38 assists in 63 games.
He ranked 11th in the league in even-strength goals and 7th in all-situation goals this year. Here’s a heatmap of his goals this year (via Pick224), and it’s safe to say that his shooting talent is one of his best assets. There’s no doubt he’s one of the top finishers in this draft.
Bourgault is able to produce at high rates at both even-strength and on the power play. This year, he was in the 95th percentile in EV Primary Points/60, while he was in the 91st percentile in PP Primary Points/60.
To dig a bit deeper past his production with the limited data we have, Bourgault was on-ice for 32 GF (goals for) at even-strength, and 24 GA (goals against), with a GF% (goal differential) of 57.14%. The Cataractes had a 53.41 GF% with him on the bench, meaning when Bourgault stepped on the ice, his team’s GF% increased by 3.73%.
In his previous year, he was on-ice for 71 GF at even strength, and 54 GA, with an overall GF% of 56.80%. Bourgeault has had some nice production numbers and encouraging on-ice results in both of his years in the QMJHL, which is a very positive sign.
The Eye Test
Using QMJHL Live, I watched a few Bourgault games, focused primarily on him, and made numerous observations. (All clips shown below are via QMJHL live, I do not own any of these clips and all rights belong to their respective broadcasters and the QMJHL)
Bourgault’s (#98) playing style reminds me of a right-handed Blake Coleman in a way. He’s a strong transitional player with tons of skill, excellent offensive instincts, and superb playmaking and puck-handling abilities.
His hockey IQ is an area that impresses me. Bourgault is real good at making those quick, sneaky passes, and I counted numerous no-look passes from him. Here’s one of his assists this season. His original pass started the whole play, and he excels at making passes in tight/under pressure.
Here’s a shift where he makes a couple of pretty passes, and he’s usually very successful at effectively completing quick, nifty plays and efficiently getting the puck to his teammates. Again, he’s great at making plays in-tight.
As stated before, like seen by his box score stats, it’s also obvious he has an excellent shot and a very strong release.
Playing with Mavrik Bourque (#22), the 30th pick in the 2020 NHL draft by the Dallas Stars, also helps quite a bit, as Bourque is an excellent playmaker. It’s clear they both have a lot of chemistry and work well on a line together. Bourgault’s other most common linemate was the 97th pick in this year’s draft by the Buffalo Sabres, Olivier Nadeau (#20).
Bourgault’s skating is an interesting topic. He shows flashes of speed at times, and he’s good in terms of top-end speed like shown in this clip. He’s pretty solid at completing zone exits and entries.
But at the same time, I would also note many moments where he seemed almost lethargic to me. He’s somewhat inconsistent in this area. One specific observation I made is that he’s not very fast when he changes directions while skating, and he needs work on his edges.
As for the defensive side of the game, I think there’s also room for improvement in that facet. I’ve seen him out of position from time to time, and he’s also not afraid to take risks. One example of what I mean is that I’ve noticed a couple of times where he’s left his zone a bit quickly in hope of getting sprung by a breakaway pass. He’s by no means a defensive liability, he rarely makes turnovers and is efficient at getting the puck out of his own end, but his defensive play isn’t one of his strong suits either.
Overall, from what I’ve watched, Bourgault is a dynamic player with a lot of offensive upside, excellent offensive IQ, and a deadly shot, but he could use work on his agility, and he can take some defensive risks from time to time.
They’re obviously not all available on YouTube, but here’s a Youtube link to a shift-by-shift compilation of one of his games (March 25, 2021, vs Rimouski).
Some scouting reports
Sportsnet ranked him at #22, and here’s what Sam Cosentino had to say.
“An excellent finisher who works best in the offensive zone. An underrated playmaker, too.”
Dobber Prospects ranked him at #15, and Brayden Olafson of Dobber Prospects said some interesting things about how he’s a reliable pass outlet.
“Although the Shawinigan forward is highly capable of transitioning the puck himself and thinking on his feet to evade congestion, his uniqueness comes in the form of regularly being one of the most reliable and productive pass outlets in the offensive zone.”
Scott Wheeler ranked him at #21, and here’s what he said about Bourgault on June 22nd.
“Bourgault’s game doesn’t leap off the ice at you but he’s dangerous in a variety of ways, with a deceptive release that comes off of his blade early in his shooting motion and stance to surprise goalies (off of either foot or from awkward postures, too) and good playmaking instincts inside the offensive zone.”
Smaht Scouting ranked him at #34, and Josh Tessler compared Bourgault to Montreal Canadiens forward Brendan Gallagher.
“Given Brendan Gallagher’s shooting ability and his ability to find open ice at a drop of a hat in all three zones, it seems like the perfect comparable for Bourgault. Also, both forwards are outstanding in transition. The only area where Gallagher is slightly different then Bourgault is the aggressive playing style. But, hopefully when Bourgault develops his skating more and more, he will be far more aggressive and speedy to the puck.”
As for other rankings/mock drafts, Bob Mackenzie ranked him at #19, McKeen’s Hockey ranked him at #21, and ISS Hockey ranked him at #26.
Conclusion
I think selecting Bourgault at 22nd was a good pick. Most rankings had around that range, and he was definitely one of the best players available.
I could be wrong, but I doubt he turns into a superstar. I think his ceiling is a top-end 2nd liner, while his floor is most likely a solid top 9 forward/3C at the very least.
Bourgault will be heading back to Shawinigan for next year, and I think that he could be NHL ready in around 2 years. In a perfect (although maybe not extremely realistic) world, maybe he could play even as soon as 2022-23, although my prediction is that he’ll most likely begin that season in the AHL at least.
While Bourgault was a good selection, I originally desired for the Oilers to try to select Jesper Wallstedt with the 20th pick. Goalies can be quite unpredictable, and although selecting a goalie in the 1st round has not always been successful for other teams, I believe that Wallstedt would have been worth the pick and that he could legitimately turn into an excellent starter for a very long time. The tweet below is interesting, though.
If Wallstedt did have concerning character issues or some off-ice issues, and this was the reasoning behind Edmonton passing on him, I would have no regrets, but I can’t say the same if these character problems ended up being something relatively minor. Still, I don’t want to assume too much at this point.
Perhaps passing on Wallstedt will seem like a mistake in the future, but nonetheless, I’m excited for Bourgault. I feel that he could be a nice fit alongside Leon Draisaitl one day, and in my opinion, I believe he’s currently our 3rd best prospect behind Dylan Holloway and Evan Bouchard (if you consider him a prospect).
I think he has a very high chance of becoming a prominent top 6 player, and I await the day when he makes his debut in an Oilers jersey.
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